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Name: Alexander Shyrokov
First Jump: Static Line, September 6, 2003
First Freefall: September 7, 2003
Jumps: 50
License: A48020
Ratings: "Give me some time" :)
Education: PhD candidate (Electrical and Computer
Engineering, the University of New Hampshire)
"Real Job": Student and Research Assistant working on my
PhD dissertation
Website: http://sjcomp.com
Skydiving Statistics
by Alexander Shyrokov
15 March 2006
United States Parachute Association (USPA) reports that the number of experienced skydivers is decreasing on average by 2.3% every year since 2001. Meanwhile, 84 new drop zones opened in the United States since the beginning of 2004 (as reported by dropzone.com). This contradiction can be explained by the fact that the main revenue source of the commercial drop zones is the unexperienced jumpers. At the same time, there is no data available on the number of the unexperienced jumpers participating in the sport of skydiving. I collected the information which shows that the number of the unexperienced jumpers in the United States is growing.
I assembled the list of 175 drop zones (all drop zones in the Unites States registered at dropzone.com at the beginning of 2004) and tried to contact all of them using e-mail, phone and personal communications to request information about the number of experienced jumpers and total number of jumpers that have been jumping at these drop zones in 2003 and 2004. Only 50 drop zones responded to my inquiry and only 21 of them provided the requested information. Absence of the information from 88% of the drop zones did not allow me to get the exact number of the unexperienced jumpers, so I could only do an estimation of this number. I assumed that estimation errors for the experienced jumpers and total number of jumpers are proportional. This means, that if an estimated number of experienced jumpers is two times bigger than the the actual number, then I can assume that the estimation of the total number of jumpers is also twice as big as the actual number. I know the actual number of experienced jumpers from USPA statistics and hence it is possible to correct estimation errors for the number of unexperienced jumpers.
Gathered data allowed me to calculate the average number of skydivers in 12% of the drop zones for 2003 and 2004. These averages are multiplied by the total number of the drop zones to estimate the total number of jumpers in 2003 and 2004 in the United States. Estimated numbers of experienced jumpers for both years are twice as big as the actual numbers for these years. This provided me with the information that I also should take only half of the estimated total number of jumpers. The final results for the total numbers of jumpers in 2003 and 2004 are 106,403 and 113,836. I subtracted the number of experienced jumpers from the total number of jumpers to calculate the number of unexperienced jumpers.
by Alexander Shyrokov
15 March 2006
United States Parachute Association (USPA) reports that the number of experienced skydivers is decreasing on average by 2.3% every year since 2001. Meanwhile, 84 new drop zones opened in the United States since the beginning of 2004 (as reported by dropzone.com). This contradiction can be explained by the fact that the main revenue source of the commercial drop zones is the unexperienced jumpers. At the same time, there is no data available on the number of the unexperienced jumpers participating in the sport of skydiving. I collected the information which shows that the number of the unexperienced jumpers in the United States is growing.
I assembled the list of 175 drop zones (all drop zones in the Unites States registered at dropzone.com at the beginning of 2004) and tried to contact all of them using e-mail, phone and personal communications to request information about the number of experienced jumpers and total number of jumpers that have been jumping at these drop zones in 2003 and 2004. Only 50 drop zones responded to my inquiry and only 21 of them provided the requested information. Absence of the information from 88% of the drop zones did not allow me to get the exact number of the unexperienced jumpers, so I could only do an estimation of this number. I assumed that estimation errors for the experienced jumpers and total number of jumpers are proportional. This means, that if an estimated number of experienced jumpers is two times bigger than the the actual number, then I can assume that the estimation of the total number of jumpers is also twice as big as the actual number. I know the actual number of experienced jumpers from USPA statistics and hence it is possible to correct estimation errors for the number of unexperienced jumpers.
Gathered data allowed me to calculate the average number of skydivers in 12% of the drop zones for 2003 and 2004. These averages are multiplied by the total number of the drop zones to estimate the total number of jumpers in 2003 and 2004 in the United States. Estimated numbers of experienced jumpers for both years are twice as big as the actual numbers for these years. This provided me with the information that I also should take only half of the estimated total number of jumpers. The final results for the total numbers of jumpers in 2003 and 2004 are 106,403 and 113,836. I subtracted the number of experienced jumpers from the total number of jumpers to calculate the number of unexperienced jumpers.
The collected data shows that more than 80,000 new people were introduced
to the world of skydiving in 2004 as opposed to 73,000 in 2003. Even
though the number of experienced jumpers dropped by 2% from 2003 to 2004,
the number of newcomers has grown by 8%. The conclusion can be made that
commercial drop zones will prosper even with the fact that the sport is
losing experienced jumpers. The data gathered in this research explains
the discrepancies between the fact that the number of experienced jumpers
is decreasing while new drop zones are being opened.
Drop zones can benefit from publishing the information about the numbers of experienced and new jumpers, because statistical data would allow drop zone managers to make correct financial decisions. USPA could be the best candidate to collect such information in an anonymous way.
Drop zones can benefit from publishing the information about the numbers of experienced and new jumpers, because statistical data would allow drop zone managers to make correct financial decisions. USPA could be the best candidate to collect such information in an anonymous way.
